DLSU Students Devise Flood Prediction System A positive effect of Ondoy

By RACHEL C. BARAWID
September 25, 2010, 2:53pm

This article was originally published in the Manila Bulletin dated September 26, 2010, Sunday
http://mb.com.ph/articles/278923/dlsu-students-devise-flood-prediction-system

MANILA, Philippines — Its exactly a year now since Typhoon Ondoy struck Luzon, killing hundreds of people and damaging properties worth billions of pesos.

Unprepared and unaware of what was about to come, many Filipinos suffered from the devastating impact that the super typhoon brought.

What went wrong? What should have been done to prevent the floods? What measures could have been taken by the government to avoid such disaster?

These were the questions pondered upon, post-Ondoy.

While many instantly volunteered to help in rescue operations, and in the distribution of relief goods to the victims, a group of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Management students from De La Salle University (DLSU) Manila thought of putting what they are studying for to use. They created what the government should have done in the first place — a flood prediction system to help mitigate disasters caused by typhoons.

SAWATAIN
Senior ICT Management student Fj Sta. Rita had to swim through six feet of floodwaters in his hometown of Marilao, Bulacan when Ondoy occurred.

This experience inspired him to propose a flood mapping system for Bulacan to his groupmates while they brainstorming for a topic for their thesis project.

The flood prediction system called Sawatain, the Filipino word for prevention, is all about predicting what is going to occur when there is a certain amount of rainfall.

Maria Victoria Pineda, lecturer, research fellow for Center for ICT for Development (CITE4D) of DLSU’s College of Computer Studies, and the group’s adviser, says the students used the mapping tool as a solution. Variables like level of terrain, height of land, amount of rainfall and historical data of flooding in the area were also considered in creating the system.

“Sawatain simulates what is going to happen. We have chosen Bulacan as the model because it’s not only a flood-prone area but also has three of the country’s major dams. If it’s going to be a good model, it can be replicated and adopted by the government not as a system prototype but as a full-blown system,” says Pineda, an expert in disaster risk management.

Group leader Nicole Inciso says their system focuses on mitigation, one of the four phases of disaster management.

The other three phases are preparation, response and recovery.

“Our system is very scientific, it makes use of mathematical formulas where you can see right away the implications of certain amount of rainfall over a time period. With the system’s versioning function, you can do simulations before and at the time the typhoon arrives. When we talk of mitigation, early warning is very important so you can warn the people of the impending disaster,” explains Pineda.

According to Inciso, the flood prediction system can determine what barangay will be flooded, the depth of the floodwaters, and even the estimated time of arrival of the typhoon.

“When it gets uploaded in the website, the public can also have limited access to the system. Ideally kasi, ‘yung operator ng system ang may access like the Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council. Meron ding animation na kasama ito, pag pumunta ka sa Google maps then click a town and you will see how high the floodwaters are. We included disaster risk management education, the different storm signals and preparations, as well as the emergency numbers of Bulacan. We also incorporated a text messaging function so the residents in Bulacan will be given an update on the floodwaters, typhoon signals,” Inciso adds.

In a recent symposium on disaster management systems held at the DLSU, Dr. Ralph Brower, a professor at Florida State University and expert on Philippine volunteer organizations, admits that the devastating impact of Ondoy could have been prevented if there were systems to warn informal settlers, and coordinated information systems that translate weather forecasts and rainfall levels in the mountains to probable levels of flooding in individual rivers.

“International disaster management people refer to their activities as possessing four phases: response, recovery, mitigation, and planning and preparation. The Philippines and other developing countries tend to have the sequence backward and with all the energy invested in the response phase. Once a disaster occurs, if you have inadequate mitigation in the form of physical protection against flooding, no land use policies that keep dwellings out of harm’s way, inadequate or non-existent information and warning systems, and no stockpiling and distribution plans for appropriate relief supplies, it’s much too late. The lives lost from Ondoy and Peping and other recent Philippine disasters have much more to do with the failure of these other three phases than from the work of the military and police in the immediate aftermath of the typhoons,” Brower observes.

The flood mapping system of the DLSU students, according to Brower, is a critical first step and a great demonstration project. But it should be complemented by “broader, nationwide and top to bottom plans and preparation that tie together all four phases of disaster management.”

Other research projects
Even before Ondoy occurred, Pineda says the CITe4D and the College’s students have already been conducting research projects on disaster risk management.

One of these is the E-VAS, an IT system for managing volunteer database and to help the Philippine National Red Cross organize and mobilize their volunteers.

“With E-VAS, we’re trying to manage the volunteers from recruitment, profiling of their skills, identifying the needed skills and training, and then deploying and mobilizing them at the same time. Volunteers will be given rewards based on how much work they did. Kasi ang volunteer sa atin kahit sino puwede but not all have the right skills for a specific activity. Kaya may training din dapat sila,” says Pineda.

Zouranouz, on the other hand, is a disaster coordination system for the National Disaster Coordinating Council. It aims to gather the reports, historical data of all the different coordinating disaster management agencies to make their work easier.

SAGIP is a system for management and distribution of relief goods.

MASIKAN is comprised of a social networking system for reinforcing disaster preparedness. Pineda says it captures the experiences of the people in the community and puts it in the system so other people will learn from it.

“We are now bringing the resiliency and adaptation skills of the people to a higher level. The super typhoons have become more frequent and stronger, totally beyond our control. We cannot just evacuate all these people. We have to be ready by training our people in disaster management,” she stresses.

Tap local ICT experts
Pineda says the government must recognize and tap the skills of local ICT experts, and even the academe to devise effective systems instead of investing a great deal of money on international systems.

“One of the problems right now in the country is that we are so much dependent on international systems. Look at the R7.4 billion Smartmatic system for automated elections which I think has shortchanged us citizens. We have very excellent local ICT skills that we can utilize. Our college alone, is already doing a lot of almost commercially ready systems. Instead of just buying new systems abroad, the government must tap local ICT skills in developing some of the required systems,” points out Pineda.

DLSU ICT students, she says, have very good technical and research skills, as well as the heart to engage not only in profit-making systems but also social advocacies particularly in disaster management.

“We want to support the government but to do that it should also listen to the university. Kasi most of the time, last na pakikinggan nila ang academe. But in other countries like India, they’re developing their own laptop and cell phones in their universities. That was how Silicon Valley also started,” Pineda reasons.

Nicole, Fj, and two other groupmates Raymund Cruz and Juno Siojo didn’t expect that their thesis project would earn not only a high grade but also the Department Award for its social relevance and role in mitigating disasters.

“We are happy that this project has become this big and was recognized. But we will be really fulfilled if the provinces and the government adopt and use it to prevent further disasters in the future,” ends Inciso.